بریده‌ها و براده‌ها

1. My biggest concern about the #IRGC terrorism designation is its impact on #Iran's efforts to comply with the #FAFT action plan and boost its anti-money laundering + combatting financing of terrorism standards. #Trump's move may kill legislative progress on these reforms.
2. One of the main sticking points on the #FATF was bringing into force laws that prevent terrorist financing that could impact #Iran's ability to provide financial support for groups like Hezbollah. Those opposed to FATF argue this would unduly compromise national security.
3. But despite a pressure campaign, including death threats, Iranian parliamentarians were able to pass key laws, recognizing that failure to do so would leave #Iran's banking sector even more isolated from the world. Measures like #INSTEX also depend somewhat on FATF compliance.
4. But the optics of supporting #FATF are now even more difficult. Skeptics will wonder why #Iran should support international conventions on terrorist financing after a part of its own state has been deemed a terrorist organization by the US.
5. The next #FATF plenary meeting is on June 16 (in Orlando, FL no less). If #Iran makes no progress on the AML/CFT laws called for by its action plan, how will the body respond? EU countries may argue for extraordinary circumstances, but the US will try to finally blacklist Iran
6. If #Iran is blacklisted once again, its remaining links to SWIFT/correspondent banking ties could be severed. Meaning that while the FTO designation doesn't add economic pressure on #Iran itself, its political consequences could lead to greater economic pain indirectly.
7. Even if #Iran does calmly make progress on #FATF and in the event that the countermeasures are lifted (not merely suspended), the added criminal liability from the IRGC FTO designation could nullify the improvement to the overall risk perception of Iran's financial sector.
8. The great irony is that an international body was successfully encouraging #Iran to tackle terrorist financing only for part of the Iranian state itself to get labeled terrorists, derailing the whole effort.

The Trump administration solves no problems. It only creates them.
#تحریم #fatf
https://twitter.com/yarbatman/status/1115305763973496832