#ForexChief #Q4reporting #forexnews #Inflation #StockMarket #worldnews #forexmarket #NFP #SP500⠀
⚠️ Inflation puts pressure on the stock market − be careful!⠀
🥊 The Q4 reporting season confirmed that inflation and supply chain issues remain the biggest threat to stock gains in 2022. And the Fed's plans to tighten rates only make things worse.
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The fresh NFP came out perfectly strong, although the abnormally high figures were due to revision of data for November and December. For example, in January report, the number of new jobs was 467K (forecast − 150K), but the overall data correction (up) for November and December was +709K. Wages rose by 5.7% (YoY), the highest since the first COVID lockdown (May 2020). However, Fed is using average job growth over the past three months to make its decision, so the likelihood of a 50bp rate hike reached 80% at the meeting in March.
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Price pressure on the consumer remains massive, tough, and sometimes just brutal because the increase in demand has coincided with labour shortages and problems in global logistics. Still, about 76% of S&P500 companies posted higher-than-expected earnings per share, but comments about critical supply conditions made it into almost all reports.
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Real inflation in US is already 7%, the highest in last 40 years. Please note: the consumer price index for January is published tomorrow, and the forecast assumes an even higher result − 7.3%. The inflationary crisis is actively developing, which means that stocks will face more serious losses.
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Profits to y’all!