A big problem named Trump
The Kremlin offered a rather humble reaction to the U.S. presidential election win of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Vladimir Putin is extremely cautious about the politician, who regained power, just like himself after Dmitry Medvedev a while back. This can be sensed in the dictator's behavior: he seemscoy, pretending to be a distanced and overly busy guy, whose attention should be sought through personal calls. Nevertheless, during his speech at the Valdai Forum, Putin finally slipped a greeting to Trump over the election victory, expressing readiness to work with the leader chosen by the American people.
After that, Moscow was eagerly awaiting an immediate call from the future chief of the White House. Probably initiated by Russia’s intelligence, a fake spin was launched about an alleged phone call between the two presidents, which was quickly refuted as “pure fiction”. However, quite peculiar are the messages conveyed within that fake story: Russia should avoid escalation in its war on Ukraine because the United States retains a significant military presence in Europe; it is necessary to achieve a quick peace on the continent. No other “details” were disclosed so it looks like a “good intentions” lure to put everyone’s vigilance to sleep and of course an attempt to test international reactions.
The fact that Putin is not among the first global leaders with whom Trump spoke after the election results were announcedmeans nothing special. Although it did hit Putin's ego quite seriously. He understands that people expect specifics from him, not some petty jokes. In the end, the situation in the combat zone has turned into a Putin-style Apocalypse, which already gives grounds for the most extensive inquiries. Moreover, Biden and Trump had a warm meeting on a "smooth transition".
At the same time, the process of key government appointments is now underway in the U.S. Trump has already announced his picks for the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, CIA Director, and National Security Advisor. But whether these four make it into the final setup remains an open question as they are yet to go through the Senate vetting, and due to the position of the bipartisan consensus, some snags and surprises are quite possible.
This brings confusion to the rhetoric of the president-elect and fuels multiple speculations, with the rather active participation of Russian agents of influence.
Reports of plans concerning the end of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are circulating ever wider. The aggressor state does not intend to stop where it is now, seeing as its objective at least annexing all Ukrainian territories where pseudo-referendums were held two years ago. In turn, Kyiv is not prepared to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over any part of the country within the borders as of 1991, or even 1954.
It is unlikely that Trump will support such a scenario. Moreover, in order to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position, he could lift a number of existing restrictions on the use of Western long-range weapons. Even more so, in light of the risks of North Korea being fully drawn into the war, since Pyongyang has been tempted by territorial gains in Ukraine.
Under such circumstances, so to speak, peace through strength is definitely unavoidable.
It is also impossible to simply give up on the bid of the Ukrainian people, who have made such colossal sacrifices defending Euro-Atlantic values, to gain NATO membership. It is hard to imagine anything more destructive and defeatist for the Alliance than such an approach.
Putin is very much hoping to take full advantage of the White House reshuffles to consolidate his gains in Ukraine, since Russia’s economic resources are being exhausted.
The dollar has already jumped over the 100 ruble mark. According to the latest assessments, under the current pressure, the Russian economy will have collapsed by 2026. It seems that Trump will therefore be in no rush to become soft-spoken with Moscow, thus turning from a “solution” into a big problem for the Kremlin.
