Review.uz/en - Economic Review

🗓The Best Predictions for 2025 Are Actually About 2024

Bloomberg reports that as it always does, hindsight had a very good year.

📊Tech’s tycoons are hoping their big investments in artificial intelligence and President-elect Donald Trump will start to pay off in 2025. AI’s ravenous demand for content, electricity and data-center real estate will spark growing opposition.

💸For the tech subsector of crypto, 2025 may be the year when practical applications such as decentralized digital identities, oracles and zero-knowledge proofs start to attract more attention than the dizzying ups and downs of Bitcoin.

👨🏻‍💻In the workplace hybrid continuing to be the norm for knowledge workers in 2025 even as some employers loudly trumpet five-day-a-week return to the office.

📈One big problem with efforts to invest our way out of the climate crisis is that high-emissions sectors such as industrials and agriculture attract a lot less capital than those with lower emissions but the potential for higher returns. Carbon credits offer a way to even out this disparity.

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🌏The Asian Dream Is Waking Up to Reality

Bloomberg reports that the middle class is starting to struggle after decades of growth, but the momentum is still behind rising aspirations.

📊 Fifty years ago, most of the region was wretchedly poor, agrarian and misruled. The improvements in most countries have since been breathtaking, as industrialization, education and better governance led to higher quality of life and living standards.

📊The last decade has been particularly strong — between 2015 and 2021, the region accounted for 57% of global GDP growth, and in 2021 contributed almost half of world GDP at PPP, more than any other region. But momentum is now stagnating.

📈Emerging-market middle classes will double in the next decade — expanding from 354 million households in 2024 to 687 million by 2034. Even if China no longer posts the world’s fastest rate of middle-class growth, it will remain the biggest consumer market. By 2029, two in every three middle-class consumers are expected to be from Asia. The biggest increases will come from China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

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💵 Dollar Dominance Is the Key to US Debt and Deficits

Bloomberg reports that the greenback has seen off plenty of challengers — for good reason. Trump would do well to recognize its huge strategic value.

📊The eclipse of the dollar, and with it the ability of the US to borrow on a scale that would cripple any other country, has been long predicted. For at least half a century, skeptics have counted on something — or someone — coming along to knock American assets from their perch. Don't plan for a requiem just yet.

📊So the greenback isn't coming undone anytime soon. Its dominance goes beyond an official desire for a strong dollar, a weak one or something in between. The currency's pivotal role is tightly woven into the fabric of the modern economy. It accounts for the majority of global reserves and is one side of about 90% of foreign-exchange trading.

🇺🇸Right now, no other currency offers such a deep and safe pool of liquid assets. China, often cited as the country most likely to challenge US preeminence, distrusts markets. The yuan is subject to all kinds of meddling, from daily parameters on trading set by the central bank to curbs on what investors can take in and out of the country, and how easily. This isn't to say a credible greenback rival won't materialize, but perhaps, the only place that can dethrone the dollar is the US itself and everyone will have a lot to lose.

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📄Trump Should Reform Financial Watchdogs. Here’s How

Bloomberg reports that simplifying oversight of markets and banking would make the system safer. It won’t be easy.

📈No doubt, the current system is unwieldy. At the federal level — excluding an array of separate state regulators — three entities oversee banks, two supervise markets, one aims to protect consumers and another defends against financial crimes.

📊Many large institutions must submit to all of them. Senior managers of an average bank today spend some 42% of their time on compliance-related tasks. Worse, such fragmentation at times allows risks to fall through the cracks.

📉 It’s true that the US has too many regulators — including the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — in addition to state banking authorities. A better approach would be to create a single prudential authority charged with protecting the financial system.

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✔️ Assistants to the khokims are among people ("Mash'al" makhalla)

📍The "Economic Review" Journal continues to cover issues related to the introduction of the new "makhallabay" system.

📌 Arofatkhon Maksudova, assistant to the khokim in "Mash'al" makhalla in Ferghana city, regarding the situation with the introduction of the "makhallabay" system in an interview to "ER".

✂️The editorial provides excerpts from the interview:

➖ In our activities, we pay special attention to reducing youth unemployment, which is considered one of the pain points in our country. Subsidies and preferential loans were provided to achieve this goal. However, we tried not to use this form of social assistance too often. Because, in my opinion, the allocation of subsidies to young people in a sense prevents them from working on themselves.

➖ Based on the Chinese experience, work was carried out on the installation of "smart cameras", which are installed in 25 locations. These cameras can detect unauthorized citizens entering and leaving the mahalla. The territory of the mahalla is fully controlled and under surveillance. Due to this, cases of offenses have decreased dramatically.

➖ People began to believe that with a little effort they could work in their own country and be close to their families, as well as earn the income they were trying to earn abroad.

➖ If explanatory work is carried out correctly among our people, if the true essence of the reforms reaches the people's consciousness, then the development in the mahallas will certainly be dynamic. The experience will increase as you work. I've seen this through my own example. We are gradually achieving our goals. People know us, and the heads of organizations trust us. The most important thing is that people are happy!

Jamoliddin Turdimov

In the country/Assistants to the khokims are among people

«Economic Review» Journal №11/2024

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🛢Oil Sector Lobbies Trump to Spare It from Tariffs and Regulation

Bloomberg reports that the American Petroleum Institute offers dozens of policy ideas. Trump campaigned on vows to unleash American energy dominance.

🗺Oil industry heavyweights are lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration to make good on promises to bolster US energy dominance by offering more drilling opportunities, dialing back environmental regulations and insulating the sector from tariffs.

🖨The proposals are spread across 42 pages of memos to 10 agencies the American Petroleum Institute is presenting to Trump’s transition team. The organization is the US oil industry’s primary voice in Washington and has a long history influencing the nation’s energy policy. It’s now poised to wield even greater sway under Trump.

📌Oil companies are bracing for tariffs Trump has vowed to levy on a range of goods, fearing they’ll raise the cost of materials used for wells, pipelines and refineries. They’re also concerned about the prospect he’ll impose duties on crude itself flowing into the US from Canada and Mexico, which refineries depend on to make diesel and gasoline.

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🏛 Billions of Dollars, Bold Action: EMs Battle a Surging Greenback

Bloomberg reports that MSCI EM currency index is set for worst quarter in two years. Intervention can only slow currency depreciation.

👍From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows.

📊The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has fallen 3.1% since end-September and is heading for its biggest quarterly drop in two years, led by the real, Hungarian forint and the Chilean peso. The moves come after the Federal Reserve forecast fewer interest-rate cuts next year and signaled that inflation concerns are back on the radar.

📉The declines in emerging markets have fueled a tide of bearish bets, with some hedge funds wagering that more losses will accrue when President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies kick in.

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☑️#Infographics: Uzbekistan's foreign trade with the EAEU countries for January-November 2024

🤝President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is paying a working visit to St. Petersburg to participate in the CIS and EAEU summits on December 25-26.

📈On May 29, 2024, the EAEU celebrated 10 years. Uzbekistan has an observer status in the EAEU since 2020. The Republic ranks 1st among the EAEU trade partners from all CIS countries that are not members of the EAEU.

4️⃣Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU member states in January-November 2024 increased by 11.1% amounted to $15.9 billion, of which:
◾️exports – $5.4 bln.
◾️imports – $10.5 bln.

🇷🇺Foreign trade turnover with Russia amounted to $10.7 bln. (+20.5%)
◾️exports – $3.4 bln.
◾️imports – $7.3 bln.

🇰🇿Foreign trade turnover with Kazakhstan amounted to $3.9 bln.
◾️exports – $1.3 bln.
◾️imports – $2.6 bln.

🇰🇬Foreign trade turnover with Kyrgyzstan amounted to $740 mln.
◾️exports – $477 mln.
◾️imports – $263 mln.

🇧🇾Foreign trade turnover with Belarus amounted to $646 mln. (+13.4%)
◾️exports – $150 mln.
◾️imports – $496 mln.

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💥Quantum Computers: Getting Real?

Bloomberg reports that Google has made striking advancements in a promising new technology. Now the government needs to do its part.

🧠 Alphabet Inc.’s Google announced a major advancement in the field. Its quantum chip, called Willow, performed a calculation in less than five minutes that might take a regular (or “classical”) computer 10 septillion years.

📊Since achieving a previous milestone, in 2019, Google has doubled the number of qubits on its chip while exponentially reducing its error rate. Other big companies, including International Business Machines Corp. and Microsoft Corp., are also moving ahead quickly. A functional quantum computer, long theorized, now looks plausible within the next decade or so.

📊 For militaries and intelligence agencies, the race to dominate this new field is already heated. Quantum sensing may enhance reconnaissance and surveillance systems while providing an alternative to GPS for navigation or positioning. Quantum communications could harden sensitive electronic networks. A quantum computer could (in theory) accelerate development of autonomous weapons or provide unimpeded access to an adversary’s encrypted files.

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