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π₯ Prosperity Guardian saves oil: the situation in the Red Sea will affect prices
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Analysts (but not so confidently!) say that shipping problems in the Red Sea will not have a strong impact on the market β the opportunity to redirect supplies exists, so there is no direct impact on production yet. But the situation can get complicated at any moment.
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About 7 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Red Sea from north to south and back. If logistics change permanently, spot prices risk adding $3-5 per barrel as oil accumulates in floating storage and the availability of commercial supplies decreases globally. European gas prices are already on edge.
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Due to military provocations, shipping in the Red Sea has been stopped, oil tankers are idle, and container ships are embarking on a long journey around Africa. BP suspended shipments across the Red Sea, the most visible sign of disruption to energy flows. A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, which transports a wide range of consumer goods and energy products, also sent its ships around Africa.
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MSC, CMA CGM Group and Hapag-Lloyd are leaders in the alliances that move the bulk of consumer goods between Asia and Europe, and they will be forced to change routes. Meanwhile, attacks by the Houthis, who have stepped up their activities in support of Hamas, are intensifying.
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On December 18, the Pentagon announced the start of Operation Guardian of Prosperity, in which the United States, Great Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain will unite to provide security in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This is an adequate attempt to address the issue of protecting merchant ships legally transiting international waters.
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So there is no need to rush into mid-term forecasts for oil and gas.
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Profits to yβall!