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π¬π§ Pound before the BOE meetingβ
π Speculative selling is not only caused by the closing of the dollar's shorts after the Fed meeting. Two factors put pressure on the pound: the postponement of the full opening of the British economy for four weeks until July 16 and the development of a conflict with the EU over implementing the Brexit agreement.
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The current grace period for UK shipments to Northern Ireland expires on June 30, Johnson asked the EU for a three-month grace period. There is no official answer yet, but the EU has already reacted extremely negatively and again reproached London for non-fulfillment of key points of the treaty.
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Retail sales unexpectedly fell in May - the British became more cautious in their purchases even after the partial cancellation of the lockdown. According to media reports, consumers are actively moving from stores to restaurants.
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Despite the risk of Out-of-control inflation (according to research by BOE chief economist Andy Haldane) and a shortage of labor in some sectors of the economy, a decrease in the pace of purchases of BOE under the QE program is logical not earlier than autumn, when the British economy will show a reaction to the completion of the government support programs for the labor market.
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Considering the weak reports on the labor market and retail sales, no change in BOE policy is expected, but the failed experiment with forecasts for the Fed may well happen again.
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Profits to yβall!