Heuristics and Lessons from my first year of trading (2024): - At the tail start of trends it pays to be a holder - At the tail end of trends it pays to aggressively rotate (If you play a lot) OR it pays to be extremely selective about what you buy - Most of the gains are made by aggressively buying and holding at the tail start of trends because most market participants are still skeptical and waiting for confirmation that it’s indeed a new trend. This means there’s endless buyers in the future - Most of the gains are given back at the tail end of trends because people are still playing with the same habits at the tail start of trends. They’re still prioritising aggression when they should be prioritising selection - If you feel something strongly in your gut (even if the world is yelling at you the opposite) be willing to bet big on it, it will pay even if you’re wrong. - Being early pays the most with the least amount of risk - Participants will try to convince you that being early is risky and retarded and that being late is smart and safe. The opposite is true - When you catch a winner, latch onto it like your life depends on it - You get paid the most to see what most market participants will see in the future but don’t see yet - When you find a good spot, buy when you feel uncertain, sell when you feel euphoric - Consensus is a good thing when it’s only a handful of smart people agreeing with you. When majority agrees with you, start moving cautiously and planning your exit plan - Whenever you fumble or miss a trade, you either buy higher for exposure and peace of mind or you completely erase it from your mind. Later reflect on it and take your lessons. No dwelling, ever. You never see a winner crying in a casino. - When it comes to good spots/trades, buying FUD is often the right move. - 3-10 mil is often the sweetspot for on-chain gems, even though buying a % is more expensive - The easiest way to become a good trader is to build conviction spots frequently and letting them playout. This will wield the most amount of returns in lessons learned. - When things are slow on-chain, looking for oversold/undervalued projects is often the best use of your time. You can still play new pairs but unless you’re one of the best, you’ll most likely lose - Remove emotional attachment to trades. Being a believer does pay but only if you sell at some point - Be quick on your feet and be willing to change course if the market steers in a different direction from the one you thought it was going - Always ask yourself “Has my thesis fully played out yet or are there still catalysts left in the tank?”. Trade accordingly - All the big jumps in ports are made in actual narrative/thesis trades. Volume trading is good, but from my observation, the way to hit 8-9 fig spots on-chain is by holding something from sub 20/30 mil to multi 9 figs/billions - Cut your losers quick - There's always another trade - This market pays you the most to be forward looking. Money to be made in the past. Wealth to be made in the future