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☝️ Political PR against stability: why the Taiwan scandal is dangerous⠀
🔥 Asian markets continue to be nervous. Officially, the United States remains committed to the policy of one China, but at the same time, Washington de facto supported Pelosi's scandalous visit to the island, which China considers its territory. The formal results of the visit look dull, but it risks becoming a trigger for a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
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The most pessimistic and even apocalyptic scenarios did not materialize. Dollar strengthened its position in the short term,
Beijing limited itself to military exercises around the island, the introduction of economic restrictions on Taiwan and personally against the speaker of the US Congress and her relatives.
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China has already stopped supplying natural sand to the island and has officially blocked the import of local citrus fruits and fish; a ban on the import of high-tech chips has not yet been considered. But these restrictions are enough to cause a short-term panic, stock market fluctuations, a decrease in economic activity and active capital flight from the main Asian assets. The Taiwanese dollar fell to two-year lows.
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Officially, Beijing has already completed military exercises in the area of the busiest international waterways and air routes, but the formal blockade of the island remains. Gradually, other countries in the region, such as Japan, are also involved in the conflict. Large players avoid active purchases of the dollar and the Chinese yuan and move the capital to the yen.
Local elections are scheduled to take place in Taiwan on November 26, and until then, China should assess the chance for a "peaceful reunification" of the island and the mainland. If
Beijing decides that there is no chance, then a military conflict is inevitable. The economic consequences of such a war would be severe and, for some countries and industries, catastrophic.
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Profits to y’all!