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☝️ Trump vs. the Law: will there be hype in the markets?
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🔥 An interesting show awaits us: for the first time since the formation of the United States, an ex-president of America will be charged with a real criminal offence. Donald Trump testifies before a New York trial in the Stormy Daniels case.
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Previously, a similar precedent was only with Ulysses Grant in the 19th century for speeding while riding a horse - then the ex-president limited himself to a minimum fine. The situation with Trump is much more serious.
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If the jury decides that the former president is still guilty of falsifying data in order to conceal or commit another crime, then Donnie could receive 4-5 years in prison. In addition, there are 30 more counts of business fraud charges, so the lawyers have a lot of work to do.
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The show will definitely be multi-episode. Trump does not admit guilt, considers the process "political persecution" and calls on his supporters to protest.
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Under US law, Trump has the right to return to the presidency, even after being charged with criminal offences. The media noise has already caused his ratings to rise: a YouGov poll showed that 54% of Republicans would like to see Trump as a candidate for president in the elections in 2024.
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Although the conviction of the former president is not a cause for an apocalypse in the markets and there are no fundamental reasons for strong volatility, speculators will not miss the opportunity to short-term hype, at least on the dollar index and S&P500.
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The threat of a real reversal will come only if Trump manages to organize real protests and get people on the streets. But it is worth tightening control over StopLoss now.
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Profits to y’all!