Otet Markets

🛢Oil Prices Surge as Ukraine Conflict Escalates

🟢Oil prices saw a boost on Friday, with Brent crude rising by 17 cents (0.2%) to $74.40 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbing by 20 cents (0.3%) to $70.30 per barrel. This marks a strong weekly gain of over 4%, driven by the intensifying war in Ukraine, which continues to impact global markets.

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🇺🇸$60 Trillion: Total Value of the U.S. Stock Market

🟢The total value of the U.S. stock market reached $60 trillion for the first time in history in 2024, growing fourfold. Additionally, the market values of stocks in Asia and Europe are approximately $18 trillion and $15 trillion, respectively.


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🇺🇸Game-Changer for Financial Markets: Digital Tokens as Collateral!

🟢BlackRock and Franklin Templeton's money market funds are on the brink of approval as collateral for derivative transactions. This groundbreaking move, led by two giants in asset management, could revolutionize the use of digital tokens in traditional financial markets. Once approved, investors will be able to use these tokens as collateral, potentially boosting liquidity and efficiency across financial markets.

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🔺Tighter Sanctions on Iran Could Boost Brent Prices

🟢Goldman Sachs warns that stricter sanctions reducing Iranian oil supply by 1 million barrels per day may push Brent crude prices to the mid-$80s in early 2025. However, with high spare capacity in the market, medium-term risks point downward, and prices could drop below $60 by 2026.

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🟡Kevin Warsh Likely to Join Trump Administration as Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair

🟢According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump is considering Kevin Warsh as his pick for Treasury Secretary, with the possibility of nominating him as Federal Reserve Chair later. The decision isn’t final yet, and Trump is expected to make a definitive choice closer to Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026.

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🇯🇵Japan Edges Closer to Rate Hikes Amid Global Shifts

🟢A Reuters poll shows 56% of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates in December, reaching 0.50% by March and potentially 1.00% in the long term. Interestingly, 96% believe a Donald Trump return to the U.S. presidency could push the BoJ to accelerate rate hikes further.

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🟢 8 Key Market Trends in the Past Hours

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🇯🇵Japan's Inflation Drops: Is the End of Loose Monetary Policies Near?

🟢Inflation in Japan has decreased but remains above the central bank's target, strengthening the possibility of an interest rate hike in the near future:

🟢Japan's inflation rate in October declined compared to the previous month.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is still higher than expectations.
Inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
The likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the next meeting has increased.

📺Watch our full analytical video on this critical news

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🇨🇳China Focuses on a Stable Yuan and Green Trade

🟢China's Central Bank has reaffirmed its commitment to keeping the yuan's value at a balanced and reasonable level. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce plans to launch new policies next year aimed at expanding the trade of eco-friendly products. These efforts are designed to boost sustainable commerce while minimizing the environmental impact of international trade.

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🌎 Today's Key Economic News

United Kingdom 🇬🇧:
🟢 Consumer Confidence Index:
Analysis of consumer confidence in the UK economy and its impact on purchasing behavior and economic decisions.
🟢 Retail Sales Index (Monthly):
Evaluation of monthly changes in consumer spending and their effect on economic growth and purchasing power.

Japan 🇯🇵:
🟢 Preliminary Manufacturing PMI:
Initial assessment of manufacturing activity and its impact on Japan's economic outlook.

Germany 🇩🇪:
🟢 Final Quarterly GDP Growth:
Analysis of Germany's finalized GDP growth for the past quarter and its implications for economic policies.
🟢 Preliminary Manufacturing PMI:
Review of manufacturing activity and Germany's economic conditions based on preliminary data.

Eurozone 🇪🇺:
🟢 Speech by ECB President (Christine Lagarde):
Evaluation of Christine Lagarde's views on Eurozone monetary and economic policies and their potential impact on financial markets.

United States 🇺🇸:
🟢 Preliminary Manufacturing PMI:
Analysis of manufacturing activity and its contribution to US economic growth.

✅ These indicators provide key insights into the economic conditions of various regions and are likely to influence financial markets and investment decisions.

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📉 Calendar
🕯 7 Key Economic Insights for Today

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🇨🇦Canada’s Industrial Producer Prices Experience Strong Rebound in October 2024

🟢Canada Producer Price InflationCanada's industrial producer prices jumped 1.2% in October 2024, beating forecasts of a 0.3% rise and recovering from a 0.8% drop in September. This marked the first increase in three months and the strongest monthly gain since April, driven by a 5.5% surge in non-ferrous metal prices and rises in energy (+2.5%), wood products (+1.3%), and vehicles (+0.3%). Annually, prices grew 1.1%, rebounding from a 1% decline in September.

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🔹Dormant Bitcoin Wallets: Millions Move After Years of Inactivity

🟢Recently, several long-inactive Bitcoin wallets have come to life, including one dormant for 12.5 years that transferred 400 BTC, worth $35.84 million, after originally receiving the coins when Bitcoin was just $5.45. Other wallets with similar histories have also moved millions, sparking speculation about profit-taking or updated storage methods. These reactivations, some linked to potential dusting attacks, underline Bitcoin's enduring appeal and the dramatic value growth early holders have seen. Even after years of silence, dormant wallets remind us that in crypto, anything can suddenly re-enter the game.

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🟡Goldman Sachs reports U.S. long/short equity funds delivered a strong 14% YTD return, with their VIP list outperforming the S&P 500 at 30% YTD. Post-election, funds increased net leverage while cutting gross leverage, as short interest in the S&P 500 fell to 1.8%. The spotlight is now on technology and AI, with funds boosting positions in NVDA and TSLA, while trimming stakes in AAPL and AMZN.

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🔸CBI Survey Reveals Improved Manufacturing Orders in November

United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends OrdersThe Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) net balance of new orders improved to -19 in November 2024 from -27 in October, exceeding forecasts of -25. While total and export order books remained below “normal,” conditions showed improvement. Expectations for selling price inflation rose (11 vs 0), and stocks of finished goods were deemed more than adequate (21, the highest since August 2020). CBI Lead Economist Ben Jones noted that recent output had underperformed due to uncertainties around the UK Budget, US elections, and European political instability, but manufacturers anticipate a return to growth in the coming quarter.

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🇨🇳China Legalizes Crypto Ownership: A Groundbreaking Court Decision

🟢A court in Shanghai has officially ruled that cryptocurrency ownership is legally allowed in China, recognizing it as a legitimate asset with legal protections. This significant decision marks a new chapter for the country’s stance on digital currencies, bringing clarity to the legal status of crypto assets and paving the way for future developments in the sector.

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💲Bitcoin's New Era: Unprecedented Growth and Risk

🟢Bitcoin is entering a transformative phase with the launch of spot ETFs and options trading, driving new waves of investment and volatility. The interplay of reflexivity and Gamma Squeeze could push prices to unprecedented heights, offering both immense opportunities and significant risks. This pivotal moment marks a new chapter for Bitcoin in global finance.

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🔹Nvidia's Forecast Sends Nasdaq Sliding

🟢Nasdaq dropped by 0.62% on Thursday after Nvidia's earnings forecast failed to meet investor expectations. Despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly profits, Nvidia (NVDA.O) saw a 3.8% pre-market decline due to a slower revenue growth outlook and shrinking profit margins. This negative sentiment spread to other chip-related stocks, with companies like Broadcom, Qualcomm, and AMD all losing between 0.7% and 1.1%. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 also saw declines of 0.18% and 0.43%, respectively.

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💲Dollar Stalls After Rally

🟢The US dollar held steady on Thursday after a significant rally, as investors awaited clarity on President-elect Donald Trump's policies and a potentially smaller rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar index dipped 0.11% to 106.49, staying near its one-year high. Meanwhile, the euro edged up 0.09% to $1.0554 but remained close to its yearly low. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.51% to 154.63 per dollar after the Bank of Japan's governor emphasized exchange rates in economic forecasts.

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🛢Oil Prices Inch Up as U.S. Stocks Rise

🟢Oil prices saw a slight uptick, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate increasing by 0.2%. Brent oil futures rose by 16 cents to $72.97, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 16 cents to $68.91. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 545,000 barrels last week, well above the forecasted 138,000 barrels.

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