Glassnode

The U.S. Department of Justice is cleared to sell 69,000 BTC - worth over $6 billion.

With Glassnode, you can track government-held Bitcoin wallets and estimate the potential market impact if this kind of sell-side pressure occurs.

Putting it in perspective
In July 2024, the German government sold 56,000 BTC, but instead of collapsing, the market rallied from $53k to $68k.

However, past large inflows have had different results:
🔸 March 2021: 70.5k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.72 (Euphoria/Greed)—short correction, then recovery.
🔹 June 2022: 68.7k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.21 (Capitulation)—a prolonged bear market followed.

Bottom line: Market reactions depend heavily on where we are in the cycle.

With Glassnode’s US Government Balance metric, you can set alerts to be notified when coins move - helping you stay ahead of potential sell-offs.

🔗 Check it out: https://glassno.de/40ccXL7

Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 - typically associated with extreme euphoria - haven’t been reached this cycle yet. If BTC were to hit this level, it would correspond to a price tag of ~$132K.

📊 Historically, BTC price has spent only ~5% of trading days above this threshold, reinforcing why it’s viewed as a rare "extreme euphoria" zone.

❓ Will MVRV reach 3.2 this cycle? While momentum remains positive, with MVRV still above the 1-year MA (currently 2.18), one of the key questions is whether this trendline will plateau in the coming weeks - making MVRV momentum an important metric to monitor.

🔗 Explore the charts:
MVRV Pricing Bands
Historical MVRV Levels
MVRV Momentum

The STH MVRV ratio for Bitcoin currently sits at 1.1, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, 10% in profit. This metric helps gauge the sentiment of recent market entrants, who tend to be more speculatively minded and react quickly to price volatility.

This year, the MVRV ratio for STHs peaked at 1.44 in March, dropped below 0.8 in September marking a local bottom, and reached the high of 1.35 in November.

It often pays off to watch the neutral level of 1 as it tends to act as support during uptrends but can flip to resistance if decisively broken, signaling a shift in sentiment.

In terms of price, the MVRV of 1.0 currently corresponds to a short-term holder cost basis of $87K. According to Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) data, there is an "air pocket" of demand between $87K and $71K. This potentially makes the $87K a make-or-break level for the short-term price action.

🔗 Relevant Charts:

STH MVRV Indicator: https://glassno.de/3Pp4BLn
Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Data: https://glassno.de/cbd

Ethereum Spot ETFs saw $2.05B in net inflows during December – the highest monthly total since inception. However, this influx of institutional capital wasn’t enough to shield ETH from downside volatility. The ultimately closed the month with a -10% loss.
https://glassno.de/3DI1mfy

Bitcoin Spot ETFs brought in $4.63B in December, well above the 2024 monthly average of $2.77B. Inflows were heavily concentrated in the first half of the month, while the second half saw outflows – with one notable exception on December 26. Despite reaching a new all-time high above $108K, BTC closed the month with a -3% performance.
https://glassno.de/4a00kHE

Key Highlights:
🔸Largest BTC ETF inflows: BlackRock’s $IBIT at $5.51B, followed by Fidelity’s $FBTC at $352.83M.
🔹Biggest BTC ETF outflows: Grayscale at -$997.59M, followed by Ark 21 Shares at -$193.94M.
https://glassno.de/4a00FKy

1/ Cost Basis Distribution (CBD): A Key Insight for Investors

CBD measures the total Bitcoin supply held by addresses with an average cost basis within specific price ranges.

Key Observations:

- A dense cluster of supply exists between $88.1K-$103K.

- Since mid-December, we've been hovering near the lower band ($88.1K).
$98K buyers remain notably resilient despite market fluctuations.

- This region acts as a critical zone of interest for price action.

📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a

2/ The Air Gap: $70K-$88.1K

Above the dense cluster lies an "Air Gap" between $70K-$88.1K – an area with significantly lower supply concentration.

📉 Implication:

If the market enters a prolonged price contraction phase, this zone could act as a bottom discovery region, attracting new buyers eager to accumulate Bitcoin at a relative discount.

Keep a close eye on these levels—they hold the key to market resilience or deeper corrections.

📊 https://glassno.de/4iWs04a

The last two years have been remarkable for Solana: a staggering price appreciation of +2,143%, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum on 344 out of 727 trading days since the FTX fall.

In our latest analysis, we utilize Glassnode’s new breakdown metrics for Solana to inspect and understand the underlying capital flows behind the dramatic ascent. Find out more: https://glassno.de/3Dqm9E9

We've enhanced our latest release of Solana to provide even better analytics: advanced metrics are live! Explore over 80 SOL metrics in Studio: https://glassno.de/SOL