【 What happened to Bitcoin? Has the Bear gone?比特幣發生了甚麼事？ 現在是否離開熊市？】
Author: Research Team
Bitcoin price is recovering. FUD is not much as heavy as before, and the rebounces also supported by strong buy wall at 7500USD, which has been much higher than the previous Dip at 6000USD. As there has been strong rebounce of 30% from Dip in both Bitcoin and many altcoins, now it can be concluded that the downtrend was not a systematic crash— so-called "Bubble Burst", like Mt Gox issue that leaded to loss of faith in cryptocurrencies. It was just technical correction and consolidation. Of course it is no doubt that it has been a relatively DEEP correction from ATH, when compared to the previous Bullish corrections in past few months. And it must be emphasized that it is very “normal” to have a 70% or more correction in Stock market throughout the history.
The steep falling from 7000USD level to 6000USD level and fast recovery could be intepreted that it was the last panic sell in a typical Bearish Market Third. There were huge amount of capital "get ready" in exchange to Buy the Dip when Bitcoin price hit the satisfactory level 6000-7000USD.
Yesterday, in the morning of Asian time , the biggest altcoins market Binance has been under emergent maintainence, people continued FUD as some people suggested the doubt of being hacked. It is a critical moment during the bearish market and reversal. A fast drop has been quickly observed right after by the sudden maintainence to 7500USD level. There has been a strong rebounce and returned to 8000USD level. It has been a bullish signal and effective retest of support level.
It is a good entry level at 8000USD of Bitcoin for a trader holding 0% Bitcoin in your portfolio. The following consolidation would probably within 8000-9200USD range in coming days. If 8000USD level is broken, beware of 7500USD level would be a sign of Bear; if 9200USD level is broken with significant volume, we can look for 10000USD as next strong resistance level. The market is extraordinarily Bullish again if sell wall at 10000USD level is melt easily.
比特幣價格正在恢復中，FUD(意指疑惑、恐懼)較之前數天為弱，並已呈現較強的支持位(7500USD)，支持位遠較上次最低位(6000USD)為高。由於已經出現從最低位計(6000USD)30%以上幅度的明顯反彈，故此可以判斷這並非MtGox一類的系統性崩盤，或傳統泡沫爆破型態所引發的信心危機。雖然此次下跌的幅度較前數次深度調整為深(從最高點計算)，但現況來看極有可能是技術性調整及深度整固。70%或更多的整固，在股票市場的歷史上並不罕見。
從7000USD水平計，到6000USD最低位，於非常短時間內急跌並且快速反彈，這是典型的熊市第三期最後的恐慌性拋售。強力的反彈反映有充裕資金一直等待時機入市。
於亞洲時間昨日早上，全球最大競爭幣市場”幣安”突然緊急維護，很快的市場聯想到各種交易所被盜的情況，再一次發生大規模 FUD，比特幣價格亦即時出現明顯拋售情況。跌勢未有持續，很快於7500USD水平出現強力支持並反彈上8000USD以上水平。這是一個代表市場情緒正面的牛市訊號及對支持位一次有效性很高的測試。
已清倉的交易員可以考慮於8000USD水平買入，此為短期內之合理範圍。未來數天將於8000-9200USD範圍整固。若跌穿7500USD，市場很大機會再次進入熊市。如突破9200USD水平，下一強阻力位為10000USD。若市場輕易突破10000USD水平之阻力，代表市場再次進入極度樂觀的狀態。
9th Feb 2018. HKT0252(UTC+8)
分析來源：
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