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💱 Target levels and forecast for the week 11.04. – 15.04.
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Actual week will prepare markets for the upcoming BOJ and Fed meetings. There may be insights from BOJ, although Tokyo has always preferred sudden decisions to capitalize on speculators. Fed officials will remain silent.
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The focus will be on US CPI and PPI inflation, as well as US retail sales and industrial production - these data will of course influence Fed members' rhetoric and forecasts, but we still see June as the starting point for rate cuts.
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On the Eurozone, industrial production data is worth paying attention to.
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BOE will be closely watching the wage growth data - this indicator is the most important factor in deciding whether to adjust rates. GDP for the first quarter is likely to be positive, which will mean the end of the technical recession in the UK.
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Fans of Asian assets are advised to follow the news closely: the Red Sea crisis is fueling inflation in Asia as it impedes shipping between countries in the region and their trading partners in the US and Europe. Much of the region will be affected indirectly through higher shipping costs. Those who depend on food imports - New Zealand, India and Pakistan - will be hit first.
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Recall the fundamental events that you need to pay attention to (GMT 0 time):
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Tue, 12
GBP: Statistics of the labor market (07:00);
EUR: Eurogroup Meetings (10:00)
USD: OPEC Monthly Report (12:00); CPI (12:30); API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30)
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Wed, 13
GBP: GDP, Industrial Production, Trade Balance (+ Non-EU) (07:00)
EUR: ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting (08:00)
USD: Crude Oil Inventories (+Cushing) (14:30)
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Thu, 14
USD: IEA Monthly Report (09:00); Initial Jobless Claims, PPI, Retail Sales (12:30)
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Fri, 15
USD: Export, Import Price Index, (12:30); Industrial Production (13:15)
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For more news − see Economic Calendar.
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Profits to y’all!